One Ethiopia

This is a log of the lonely thoughts of a man who has grown old in a foreign land.

April 16, 2006

Another Lie Fades When Put to the Sun Test

So who was it really who first said that if you tell a lie often enough, it becomes the truth. Was it Joseph Goebbels or was it Vladimir Illych Lenin? Actually, when the choice is between those two men, the difference fails to impress. The tyranny that is the EPRDF would not have cared who made that observation first. What matters to Meles and company is that there might be a chunk of truth to the saying. And so, the regime has adopted the tact as its most important weapon of survival next to the sniper’s gun trained on fleeing demonstrators. Indeed, Meles Inc does not even have one ministry of propaganda or one Goebbels. Instead, every minister, every diplomat, every officer and agent of the regime who is high enough in rank to possibly be called upon to speak on behalf of the regime is trained in the art of the lie. It seems that lesson number one in the training regimen is “when in doubt, lie like hell”.

What else would impel a minister of finance to call a press conference and announce to the world that Ethiopia is on the verge of graduating from the ranks of the poor? In an earlier post It Is All Big Lie, I reported how asinine it was to tell such a bold face lie when the world knows the truth to be different. Well we now learn from the publication capitalethiopia that no less than the IMF has corrected the record. According to this report, the IMF is insisting that the average growth rate of the Ethiopian economy over the last three years has been 4.68%. That is far short than the 7% average annual growth proclaimed by Minister Sufian Ahmed and even a shade less than my own calculation of 4.75%.

That of course still ignores the fact that what the minister was insinuating was about sustaining growth at nearly double the record of the last several years going forward when the reality is far bleaker. One does not need training in economic forecasting to see the bleak circumstances reported by the Capital and the one or two pubs still around. The reports are worrisome. It seems that the country is more likely to experience economic contraction than growth over the next couple of years. So, Ato Sufian and others will be well advised to spend their energies looking into finding ways to steer the economy out of danger before it begins to roll down hill uncontrollably. Every day they spend sitting around the conference table trying to come up with another clever lie is a day that passes without giving the economy the attention it deserves.

April 10, 2006

It Serves No Purpose to Burn Bridges

In the weeks leading up to the congressional hearings on HR 4423, but specially since the committee approved the bill in a 6 to 4 vote split along party lines, the Ethiopian immigrant community has been engaged in a heated discussion of whether one or the other political parties might have an ideological affinity with the causes of our community. In the early stages of this conversation, much of the discussion was centered on the sense of betrayal many felt upon observing the partisan alignment of the members of the Congressional Subcommittee on Africa. To the surprise of many observers, Democratic members let it be known early in the process that they are quite pleased with the record of the Meles regime. Equally surprising to some was the realization that the Republican chair and the other members from his caucus had serious concerns over the political developments in Ethiopia but especially about the way the Meles government has been conducting itself over the last year or so.

Two historical facts explain much of the community's consternation over the unexpected alignment of the members of the Africa Subcommittee. First, many had thought that the Republican congressional majority would support the position of the Republican administration as it so often supports the foreign policy position of President Bush. The White House and the State Department have consistently supported Mr. Meles even when he goes against what appears to be America’s long term national interest. The war on terror is so paramount to the Bush doctrine that a tyrant such as Meles could receive pass after pass for everyone of his transgressions as long as he is viewed to be an important ally by those who direct the war on terror. Readers know the record and I don’t believe I need to enumerate all of the times the Bush administration went against America’s long established ideals in supporting a man who would not allow his people to enjoy basic human rights such as the freedom of speech, the right of free assembly and the right to chose their political leaders. And so, many had concluded that no self-respecting congressional committee which constitutes a Republican majority would even debate let alone pass a bill to censor Mr. Meles and to direct the Bush administration to pursue a different course in its Ethiopia policy.

The other historical fact pertains to the common settlement patterns of Ethiopian immigrants in the process of our long march towards assimilation into American society. Many of us often arrive as students or illegal immigrants and settle in poor urban centers where the rent in cheap and public transportation is easily accessible. The communities where we first settle often tend to be where ethnic minorities constitute majorities. These urban communities are often represented in the U.S. congress by Democrats. Thus our first contacts with representative government, whether it is when we seek help to regularize our legal status in the U.S. or trying to bring family members once our status is legalized, is with the offices of our congressional representatives which often tend to be a Democrat and sometimes a Black Democrat. From these early beginnings, many of us go on to establish long term relationships with our representatives and with the Democratic Party. The reactions over the last few weeks indicate that our community had invested a lot of emotion into the relationship with the Democratic Party and thought of it as something special when no special relationship existed.

If truth be told, seldom do we sit back and examine the ideological bent of either party, especially on the question of how they would handle the struggle of our compatriots back in Ethiopia. All of our preconceived ideas about how congressmen from either party would vote are just that, preconceived and not guided by systematic examination of American electoral politics. The heart wrenching lack of support by Democrats in the Africa Subcommittee is not a reflection of the nature of that party any more than the support by all of the Republicans on that subcommittee is a testimony to the character of the Republican Party.

All you have to do is go beyond the vote on the subcommittee and look at the party affiliation of the representatives who have signed on as co-sponsors of the bill. You will see a radically different alignment of the two parties. Of the 15 co-sponsors who have so far signed in support of HR 4423, fully two third are Democrats (Loretta Sanchez of California, Ms. Zoe Lofgren of California, Mr. Charles Range of New York, Mr. John Barrow of Georgia, Ms. Cynthia McKinney of Georgia, Mr. Ed Towns of New York, Mr. Martin Sabo of Minnesota, Mr. Jim Moran of Virginia, Mr. Allen Boyd of Florida, and Ms. Diane Watson of California). Republicans, including Congressman Smith of New Jersey, Mr. Frank Wolf of Virginia, Mr. Ed Royce of California, Mr. Rohrabacher of California, and Mr. Tom Tancredo of Colorado constitute only 5 of the 15 cosponsors. In my own hometown, we are blessed with two congressmen, one Democrat and one Republican. Most Ethiopians in this town happen to live in the Republican district and have had years of relationship with him. However, we have yet to succeed in our effort to encourage him to sign on as a cosponsor. The Democrat on the other hand, signed as a co-sponsor at our first visit. Now of course in order to understand how things in our town truned out that way, you need to know that the Democrat is a freshman congressman standing for his first re-election bid this coming fall while the Republican has been around since 1992, is a senior member of the Republican congressional leadership and is nearly certain of being re-elected.

This brings me to the central message of this post. Very often, indeed far too often, what matters to the representatives we send to Washington is how an idea plays back home in their district. In my part of the country for example, there are very few Ethiopian immigrants. However, among us, there are no known EPRDF supporters. We had secured over two hundred signatures, mostly college students, in support of HR 4423 and together with the half-dozen Ethiopians here, we were able to secure a co-sponsor. To our congressmen, that petition represents over 200 potential votes in November.

My other representative, who actually has some personal connection with Ethiopia having spent part of childhood in Addis, does not worry about a meassley 200 votes. He worries about several military bases in his district. He worries about supporting the troops who fight the war on terror. As a member of the Republican leadership, he is responsible for making sure that his party continues to constitute a majority in both houses of congress. So, our only hope for getting him to sign on is to get him to understand that Mr. Meles’ tyranical government breeds potential terrorists. Our task is to cast our cause as one which advances his cause, not retard it. We are working hard to get him to appreciate that if they continue to be denied of their rights, the people of Ethiopia will at some point take matters into their own hands. At some point, they will begin to try to defend themselves by whatever means necessary.

The point in relating this story is to underline the nature of American politics. One Tip O’Neil who served as Speaker of the House between 1975 and 1985 once said that in America “all politics is local”. What matters to a representative is how an idea plays among his constituency. I know Rep. Payne has several influential members of the Ethiopian community living in his district. These individuals happen to have strong business ties with the Meles regime and thus had successfully persuaded Mr. Payne to see things their way. Actually, that is not their way – it is the American way. Had, Mr. Payne lived in my district rather than in New Jersey, I suspect he would have been more sympathetic to the Ethiopian cause in the course of the HR 4423 debate.

Just as there has never been a special bond between Democrats and Ethiopian immigrants so far, there should not be a special animus between us going forward. Like I said before, you only have to look at the 10 out of 15 cosponsors to understand that most Democrats are likely to eventually stand with us as this bill winds its way to the President's desk. God only knows, we desperately want them to do so. Indeed, my concern is how we are going to get enough law makers from the President’s party to go against their President and side with us so that, together with the Democratic votes we could actually make this bill become law. That is a big hurdle for us to jump cross. Except if we organize effective strategies and we persist by calling and visiting our representatives frequently, most congressmen would not even think of what goes on in Ethiopia. Never mistake that the knowledge Reps Smith and Payne have about Ethiopia is an indication of the depth of understanding other representative might have. These two have had long services on the Foreign Relations Committee of the House and have had dealings with Ethiopian issues for long. Most of the other 480 or so representatives and 100 senators, could not even place Ethiopia on a map. It will matter only if we make it matter by reminding them that we as their constituents want them to vote one way or the other.

All of this amounts to these two points. First, both Democrats and Republicans are potential advocates for our cause if only we made the right plays. Second, we don’t have anywhere near enough support for our cause to be castigating let alone casting aside any political party as a disloyal partner. As they say in this country, you should never burn your bridges. You may need to cross that river again. We should not be too quick to condemn or write off the Democratic Party. Throwing ill conceived tantrums is one of those features of our national character that I often regret. I hope, going forward, we will be mindful of how we discuss our political leaders here in the U.S. as well as in Ethiopia.

April 08, 2006

Observations on Developments in the News

Charles Taylor Shipped to Liberia: Sometimes the news I find to be of interest are not reports on developments in Ethiopia or about Ethiopians abroad. Sometimes, developments elsewhere in the world hold great potentials to impact life in Ethiopia in profound ways. I thought that the news about Nigeria’s handover of Liberian strongman Charles Taylor to the Liberian authorities and subsequently to the U.N. tribunal on Sierra Leone would impact the future of Ethiopia almost as much as it would that of Liberia or Sierra Leone. Many in the mainstream media ballyhooed the news as the dawning of a new day in Africa. There thinking was that perhaps this will start the ball rolling on the repatriation of so many other strongmen with blood in their hands who took refuge in neighboring countries. Among the many names mentioned was that of our own butcher Mengistu.

But to me, it is not the prospect of Mengistu’s repatriation that makes the developments in the Taylor case of interest to Ethiopians. The relevance of the Taylor case to Ethiopia actually has to do with the prospects of finding a peaceful resolution to the current political impasse rather than to visiting revenge on butcher of yesteryear. You see, we have in our middle a man who just might have crossed the point of no return as far as being able to live a free man as a private citizen in his own country. I speak of Ato Meles, he who refused every opportunity to access one graceful exit strategy after another. Instead, as the popular struggle continues to loosen his grip on power, in his conundrum, he deploys ever more irrational and more repressive measures against the people in a desperate effort to hold on to power.

The more blood Ato Meles spills, the less likely it becomes for him to walk out of the PM’s office on his own two feet. It certainly becomes less and less likely for him to retire to a nice retreat by the lake in Awassa or Bahir Dar. A decade and half ago, Mengistu was in exactly the same situation. His backers, the USSR, had given up on the world socialist movement. His economy was in shambles. His army was demoralized after fighting for decades multi-front wars that seen to have no end. As his demise becomes obvious, people who lost loved ones as well as those who were themselves victimized by his goons were lined up to tear him up at the first opportunity. It was at such a juncture that Colonel Mengistu was encouraged to skip town with his skin intact. He was always thought have street smarts. He assessed the situation and took the first opportunity to skip town.

As recently as last week, I as many others, was expecting a similar end for Ato Meles. Then came the headline: “Africans hope Taylor case sets precedent”. And what a precedent it would be for us, should it actually represent a new African reality. It would then mean that Ato Meles will see no reason to flee if he is going to find himself back in Kerchele or in Kaliti within a year or two. Thus, the story about the capture of Charles Taylor, the purveyor of death and suffering in Liberia and Sierra Leone, struck me not as a harbinger of hope but as a recipe for prolonging Ethiopia’s misery.

Colonial Viceroy II: It was a beautiful thing. The congressional hearing on Ethiopia, that is. Finally, it was not just Ethiopians who were characterizing the events which unfolded of the course of the last year as a heist. Witness after witness, congressmen after congressman declared that what the Meles regime stole was not just the election. It was not even state power that was stolen. These hearings declared that Meles and company stole the hope of a country that has suffered for so long. The hearings made it clear that the heist was meant to blow out the flicker of hope which had began to rise in Ethiopia. Even though all of us have heard the stories before, it was heartening to hear it from new faces and new voices. It was nice for a change to hear American public officials state the facts as they were. Yes there was the ever illusive Donald Yamamato skirting around every congressman’s question. But, the congressmen themselves, including those who ended up voting against the bill, were right on the mark in their comments.

The last twelve months have seen one Ethiopian hero after another rise up and defend our people and our cause. I counted three such heroes in that hearing, including two I have never heard of before. Eloquent, passionate and brave in their delivery, these men and the lady made me proud to be an Ethiopian. Of course there was another Ethiopian who had the unenviable task of defending the indefensible act of Meles. I actually felt sorry for him. I know I should be angry at him. But I had no anger for him that day – only pity.

And then there was Congressman Chris Smith. He was one of those people who sometimes pickup a foreign people’s cause and fights against the odds and refuses to veer of from the truth that he knows to be there even when he is going against his government, perhaps against his party’s leadership. Congressman Smith is quickly turning himself to be a later day Sylvia Pankhurst as it relates to the cause of Ethiopia. Just as Mrs. Pankhurst became the spokesperson for the cause of Ethiopian freedom in London working against established British policy of collaboration with Fascist Italy in the 1930s, Rep. Smith is working to get the U.S. government to wakeup from its slumber and to smell the odder of the bedfellow it has chosen in the Horn of Africa.

For that, he got declared “colonial viceroy 2” by Meles and company. I knew this was coming, the moment I watched the proceedings. I only hope that Mr. Smith knows that Ethiopians are not at all like that. These are carefully calculated moves intended to draw a reaction from Mr. Smith. I also hope someone who has contact with Congressman Smith’s office would let them know that the developments during the week of March 28 through April 3rd have made him a folk hero. In my eyes and the eyes of many other Ethiopians, that shameful letter meant to demonize him actually amounts to a beatification of the congressman.

What next for HR 4423: Before, I go too far from the congressional hearings, let me remind my compatriots in the U.S. to build on this and to bring this to a successful close. We need to intensify our efforts to find support for the bill in the full House and to find sponsors of a companion bill in the U.S. Senate. No effort is too little and no group too small to have an impact. Let me recite a story to show what a few men could do. I happen to know that six ordinary Ethiopians who live in Florida and Georgia, working together, were responsible for getting the support of two of the first 9 cosponsors of the HR4423. I know there are more talented individuals and much larger Ethiopian communities in cities and states across the United States. Let us all go out in force over the next few weeks and knock the doors of our congressmen to get the bill passed and to secure sponsors for a senate version. All it takes is announcing who you are (a constituent, a voter) and what you want your representative to do (to support HR 4423 and thereby stop tyranny and bring back hope to 77 million fellow human beings).

It is Dessie and Awassa now: We have been witness to this before. One week it is Gondar, the next week it is Ambo. The people of Ethiopia refuse to give up and bow down in the face of repression. Young people across the land are fighting tyranny. What a heart warming story it is. In spite of Meles’ claim about an evil network of trouble makers launched by the devilish CUD, all of this is taking place spontaneously. Without coordination, without a great design, without central orchestration, without even any communication between independent groups, Ethiopia’s children are fighting the evil which tries to sniff out their hope for a better tomorrow.

The last word about the Ethiopian Intifada was that the children of Dessie have laid siege to the government in Dessie and have taken control of the city. Though the numbers are less spectacular, you hear the same in Awassa. The children of Addis of course never sleep. Nor do those in West Gojam and Wolega. When a people get even a whiff of freedom, there is no stopping them. Like the heroine Birtukan Medekisa said, CUD is but the spirit of the new Ethiopia. You cannot bottle it up with sheer force. You cannot sniff it out by detaining a few people or a few thousand.

Is it a change of heart or just another flimflam in the shell game? There is a pattern in the way the Bush administration conducts foreign policy this days. First it takes indefensible positions which appear to be at odds with the long term national interest. Subsequently, when things do not work out, instead of admitting error and making a clean break, the administration gives convoluted explanations about a goal achieved and the pursuit of a new set of goals given the new realities. I thought the comments of Ambassador Vickie Huddleston, Charge’ d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa might be the first indications of a change of heart or a coming to one’s senses for the U.S. Of course, since the U.S. is committed to the cafeteria approach in its policy prescriptions – a presentation with a little bit for everyone – it is rather difficult to be sure if there is a real change of heart here.

There is the encouraging statement that "we remain very, very concerned about the CUD leaders and the civil society (members) who are detained. We feel that, in the end, their release is absolutely necessary to a reconciliation process. It can’t go on like this, for this process both sides need to be ready to compromise. To have a dialogue with all the opposition it is terribly important for the future of the country and it is certainly an objective and a priority of our government. We are now 39 days before a year after the elections, it is also five months since the riots in November and the tragedy that followed, I think it is now time to move forward and for commitment. We would like to see more progress, better respect for human rights, a more professional security forces and faster movement so that the opposition parties feel that they are really listened to".

But there is also the statement that “the government should speed up the ongoing trial of 111 opposition party leaders, members and journalists who are currently facing charges of attempted genocide and treason stemming from mass demonstrations against the May 2005 parliamentary elections.” And if the Reporter is to be trusted, Ms. Huddleston also made the following, even more heinous comment: “As much as we would like to see the opposition leaders out of jail -we doubt that is going to happen immediately - we say let the process go ahead, because there is a process under way.”

So, I am left with the question I opened this section with still begging for an answer. Is the Bush administration having a change of heart but just unable to find the right language for announcing its about face, or is this just a flimflam meant to mollify the increasingly restive Ethiopian populace? Time will certainly tell where we stand.